Washington at Philadelphia

The Redskins looked horrible a week ago vs. the lowly St. Louis Rams in a two-touchdown loss on the road. The Eagles were quite the contrary as they looked not only powerful on both sides of the ball, but Super Bowl-like in their 28-3 road pasting of the Jags. Since NFL gamblers live and die by what they saw last week, the oddsmakers take that into account. This line opened at 6.5 and has moved a full point towards the Redskins, even with most of the money coming in on Philadelphia. That tells us that a few big bettors are moving this line (i.e. sharps). Michael Vick has really impressed, but that is also a double edged sword for the Eagles. Vick has not only passed for 750 yards, he has run for 170 more. That means that he has accounted for 920 of the teams 1103 total yards, or 83.4%. Last year under McNabb, that number was 64.3%. The NFL is about adjustments, so sooner or later teams are going to put the clamps on Vick, and then we may see more mistakes out of a QB who has been flawless thus far (unsustainable). Mike Shanahan has been around awhile and I expect him to have a good game plan to for Vick into some tougher situations than he has faced in recent weeks vs. the Lions and Jaguars. Philly has also struggled against a 3-4 defense which Washington employs, and is just 2-5 straight-up and 1-6 ATS when facing one in their last seven games. While the Skins’ defense ranks dead last at No. 32, the numbers are misleading. Last year the Skins ranked No. 10 and allowed 21 points per game. The No. 32 ranked defense is allowing 424 yards per game, but just 22.3 points per game, so the yards are fairly meaningless. The Skins are 28-11 ATS as a road dog of 3.5-7 in their last 39 games. Since ’93, they have gone to Philly as a 5-9.5 point dog eight times, winning five outright and covering seven of the eight. Washington's offense is close to being there as they had three drives stalled inside the 12 yard line last week vs. the Rams, so I expect them to punch a few in here. Donovan McNabb will be focused in this game for obvious reasons and I expect him to perform well. Washington is 8-2 to the OVER after a loss in their last 10, while Philly is 9-2-1 to the OVER after allowing 250 yards or less in their previous game. Under Andy Reid, the Eagles are 25-15 OVER at home following a game where they allowed 14 points or less. Since last season, Philly is a perfect 7-0 OVER when coming off an UNDER as they are here. I expect Washington's offense to perform above expectations here anf for the Redskins to get the cover and the game to go OVER the total. See ESPN covering my pick on Washington in this game here.