In this game we get “treated” to yet another Super Bowl with the Chiefs 🙄. We also get a rematch of this game two years ago when these two teams met in Glendale, Arizona. Interestingly enough, the script has flipped. In 2023, the Eagles were 1.5-point favorites. In this game, the Chiefs are 1 to 1.5 point favorites. In Super Bowl LVII, Kansas City won in a shootout 38-35. What will happen here?
Let’s get this out of the way: On paper, Philadelphia looks like the better team and as such there’s an argument that they should be favored in this game. Coming into this game, the Eagles outscored opponents by double-digits (10.5 points per game) and they come in with the league’s top scoring defense. On paper, Kansas City is good - not great. They won their games on average by just 3.7 points per game and while their defense is very good, their offense this year was middling, statistically. My computer pick for this game has the Eagles beating the Chiefs by a a couple of points, which seems about right at first glance from the available stats.
But, this game won’t be played on paper. There’s a reason that the Chiefs are here. Excluding the 0-38 lay-down to Denver in week 17, Kansas City lost just one game and that came in Buffalo. This team finds ways to win, which is why they are back in this game and instilled as a small favorite. Is it Patrick Mahomes? Is it Andy Reid? Is it the refs? Does it matter?
When Kansas City has the ball 🏈
This is the second straight year where KC comes into this game without a stellar offense. Prior to last year, the Chief’s offense was unstoppable. From 2018 when Mahomes took over, KC had produced a top-6 offense every single year through the 2022-23 season, average at least 28.5 points per game every year. But last year things changed. They entered Super Bowl LVIII ranked 15th in the league in scoring, averaging just 22.1 points per game. That was a massive drop off. How did it turn out for Kansas City? Another ring. This year, the Chiefs offense is slightly better, but still closer to middling than elite. For purposes of statistical analysis, I am going to remove the 38-0 loss that KC suffered to Denver in the final regular season game. With that out of the picture, Kansas City put up 24.4 points per game this season including the playoffs - good for a Top 10 ranking. Their offense improved slightly later into the year, averaging 27.8 per game from week 15 on and 27.5 in the playoffs. With Patrick Mahomes at the helm, this team has the capability of putting up a lot of points in any game. They scored 26 or more in 10 games this season including 32 last week in Buffalo. Philly brings in the number one scoring defense, allowing just 17.9 points per game. They allowed 23 or less 17 times but they did give up 29 to Green Bay, 33 to Tampa Bay and 36 to Washington. When facing stellar defenses this year, the Chiefs averaged just 17.3 points per game. When facing offenses the caliber of Kansas City’s this season, Philly allowed just 22 per game. Based on the stats, it would appear that Kansas City will score around 20 points.
When Philadelphia has the ball 🏈
Can the Chiefs slow down Saquon Barkley? Barkley can’t be completely stopped and he will get his. But, KC was a top-10 defense this season in opponents yards per rush, allowing 4.2 per carry. Steve Spagnuolo is going to dial up the blitzes against Hurts, and for good reason. Since Spagnuolo took over this defense in 2019, KC ranks 2nd best in the league in expected points allowed per play when they blitz. Over that same span, the Chiefs ranked best in the league in creating unblocked pressure. And, that type of pressure is kryptonite to Jalen Hurts. Philadelphia averaged just 1.1 yards per drop back when facing unblocked pressure this season (bottom 5 in the league). Hurts has a 12% sack rate against the blitz which is really bad. Philadelphia averaged 28.4 points per game this season and their offense improved as the season went on. From week 14 on, this team averaged 32.3 per game and they averaged 35 per game in the playoffs. Note that figure is skewed heavily by the 55 put up in the Conference Championship game vs. Washington. But no doubt this team can score. Their biggest struggles came early in the season vs. mediocre competition, but they also struggled late in the season a few times, scoring just 20 vs. the Giants and 22 vs. Green Bay in the Wild Card game. This team is prone to inconsistency on offense. If we include the Denver week 16 game, Kansas City’s defense looks good but not great, allowing 19.4 points per game. Buffalo was able to put up 30 and 29 against them. But, if we remove the misleading Denver game, Kansas City allowed 18.4 points per game which is excellent - nearly as good as Philadelphia’s figure. Since week 13, the Chiefs have allowed just 15.8 points per game - good enough to make a claim to the NFL’s top defense. Not that we can ignore the Buffalo games, but realistically Josh Allen is one of the top QBs in the league, if not the top. In the regular season, Allen was tops in ESPN’s QBR, compared to 10th for Jalen Hurts. In the postseason, Allen was 4th and Hurts 8th. Pro Football News and Analysis ranks Allen as the 3rd best QB this season and Hurts 15th. So there’s an argument to say that Philadelphia would be expected to score less than Buffalo did against this KC defense. For sake of argument, if we remove the Buffalo games, KC averaged 17.0 points per game allowed this season. When KC faced the league’s best QBs (Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Herbert, Daniels), the Chiefs allowed 21.8 points per game. When they faced middling QBs (Darnold, Stroud, Wilson, Hurts, Goff, Nix, Rodgers), KC allowed an average of 14.25 points per game. Based on the numbers, it looks likely for Philly to score in the low 20s.
It’s been over a decade and a half since we have had a Super Bowl matchup between two uneven teams and this year is no exception. Either team can win this game. An argument can be made for both teams.
But I see an edge here and it’s with the Chiefs. Again, at first glance it looks like Philadelphia is the stronger team on both sides of the ball. But this really isn’t the case. Once we dive into KC’s defensive stats and take opponents into account, I actually like their defense in this game more. And, while Philly’s offense looks better on paper, Patrick Mahomes is the superior quarterback, by far. The stats tell us that, and his winning ways tell us that. Sure, the Eagles have Saquon Barkley but running backs don’t win Super Bowls in this NFL.
Philadelphia was spared playing great defenses and are thus untested going against a great defense. The Eagles only played four teams with scoring defenses in the top half of the league. They put up 28 and 37 against the Rams (ranked #15), 24 vs. Baltimore (#8) and 27 against Pittsburgh (#7) and 34 and 22 against the best defense they played (Green Bay which was ranked #6).
Granted, there’s nothing overwhelming from a statistical standpoint to convince us that Kansas City will win. But, lest we not forget the intangibles. And they are huge.
Two years ago, Philadelphia was the “better” team. The Eagles came into that Super Bowl with a 7-0 record vs. playoff teams and a 16-1 record with Jalen Hurts under center, but they lost in this game to Kansas City. Why? Because the combination of a Hall of Fame quarterback and Hall of Fame coach, along with a great defense, is nearly impossible to beat. We saw what Belichick and Brady did for years. And we have seen it with Reid and Mahomes.
First let’s look at Mahomes. Despite not putting up the numbers he did early in his career, he is a top 10 quarterback statistically, and unmatched in terms of winning. Since Mahomes took over, the Chiefs are 98-22 in games when not an underdog of more than 2 points. And, in one-score games, no QB is better. Since entering the league in 2018, Mahomes’ Chiefs are tops in the league in win percentage for one-score games (winning 73%).
Now, what about Andy Reid? Two seasons ago, Reid’s play calling was absolutely brilliant.
And where would you expect coaching brilliance to matter the most? In expected close games. As head coach of the Chiefs, Andy Reid is now 42-18-2 ATS in games with a spread of -3 to +3. And he’s 34-7 straight-up when he has 10+ days to prepare for a game including 33-3 when he’s not facing a team at .875 or worse. He is the difference.
Finally, while I hate to bring it up, there’s a potential that the league wants the Chiefs to win. I won’t go into the details of why this would be, or how we have seen some evidence of it, but I do believe all things being equal, there’s a chance the Chiefs will get one or two calls more going in their favor. In an expected close game, that could be the difference.
As of this writing, you can find the Chiefs -1.5 with reduced juice and -1 at -110 odds in several places. Bovada and Ceasars have them at -1 (-105). But I'm backing them on the moneyline here at -114 as we gain a point in the line for less than a dime of juice - a plus-EV tradeoff. Take KC to win this game.
Take the UNDER in the first quarter as well. Play calling in Super Bowls tends to be very conservative to start compared to other games. Both teams want desperately to avoid losing the game in the first quarter. Players are on edge and nerves are high. Only three Super Bowls out of the last 20 have seen more than 10 points scored in the first quarter. And this game features two of the top scoring defenses in the league. The total for the first quarter is set at 9.5 but I recommend shopping for an alternate line as landing on 10 is not uncommon. I recommend you find an alternate or prop line of 10.5 (worth the heavy juice) or buy the 9.5 up to 10.
