Washington at Denver

After a horrible start in Miami, the Broncos are playing playoff-quality ball thanks to solid defense. They squeaked past San Diego, blew out Kansas City and cruised by Jacksonville last week. Time for a letdown. Shanahan-coached Broncos teams are 11-22 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4 games. They return home sky-high in confidence and despite New England's troubles, Denver is eyeing their matchup with the World Champs next week. Washington's offense doesn't strike fear into the hearts of NFL defenders so they could easily let up a bit here. The Skins have managed just over 14 points per game. But, they are steadily improving (9 in week one, 14 in week two and 20 last week). Denver has been the beneficiary of turnovers the past two weeks. They are +5 over those two weeks and if(when) that evens out a bit, they won't be winning so easily. Clinton Portis is making his first return to Denver since being traded to the Skins and you can bet he'll be running with a little extra umph. He will struggle against this Denver defense but seven points is a lot in this one. Especially considering that Washington's defense is as good as Denver's. They haven't allowed a 100 yard rusher in eight straight games and their run defense is ranked fifth in the league. If they can force the game on to Jake Plummer's shoulders, the Broncos could be in trouble. He's piloting the league's 7th worst passing offense and his mistakes are legendary. We'll back the Redskins with the points for one star.