Washington at Chicago

Sometimes what a team did a year ago at this stage of the season is hard to forget. The Bears were not a good team at this point last season, and that memory still lingers. They started 3-0 but have lost two of their last three, solidifying for many the belief that they just are not very good. While we faded Chicago last week, this is a good spot for them. The Redskins won four games a year ago. That mark was supposed to change considerably with Donovan McNabb in the fold. The problem is that whatever they gained on offense they seemed to have lost on defense. Washington currently ranks dead last in yards allowed per game at a staggering 420 yards a game. The Bears on the other hand, with Brian Urlacher once again inspiring and leading the defense, is ranked No. 8. McNabb has added all of 24 yards per game to the Skins offense over a year ago, and just 2 ppg. So with the defense lagging behind, this team has actually gotten worse. Washington, in expected close games (dog of 3 or less) has only covered one of their last 13. Washington was supposed to be sitting where the Bears are, but they are not, so we have the under-the-radar team at home in what amounts to a pick 'em game, extracting the 3 for home field advantage. The Bears can move the ball and should have no trouble vs. the worst defense in the NFL. I like Chicago to win and cover. I also like this game to go OVER the total. At home as chalk, the Bears are 20-8 to the OVER in their last 28, including a perfect 8-0 as a favorite of 3 or less. The Skins are doing a lot of the same as they are 5-1 to the OVER on the road as a dog of 3 or less. Mike Shanahan coached teams are 34-19 OVER in non-conference games. I like the Bears and the OVER.