Tennessee at New England

Tennessee doesn't have a lot of weapons for backup QB Ryan Tannehill, with an offense ranked #22 in passing, and#12 in rushing. This makes it easier for Bill Belichick and the Patriots to game plan, focusing on containing the run. New England's defense is stout upfront, allowing 95.5 yards rushing per game (sixth), while the strength of the defense is a suffocating and ball-hawking secondary. Tennessee is 9-4 UNDER the total in January games, while New England is 23-10 UNDER off a close loss by seven points or less to a division rival. The Patriots play their third straight home game after an embarrassing collapse against Miami on Sunday. Belichick will have them focused ahead and not looking backwards, as usual. One edge for the shaky Patriots' passing game is that Tennessee CB Adoree Jackson hasn't played since Week 13, while CB Malcolm Butler is on injured reserve. The Patriots are 37-14 ATS versus teams with a winning percentage between 51-60%, plus 80-48 ATS against teams that average 5.65+ yards per play. New England has covered five of the last six meetings, so back the home team in a defensive duel. Play the Patriots as a Max Play and also take the UNDER.