Tennessee at Kansas City

The Tennessee Titans have started the season 5-2. Ryan Tannehill is still questionable and the line here indicates the odds-makers don't expect him to play. That would mean a heavy dose of Derrick Henry as we saw last game where the Titans ran the ball 45 times for 314 yards while putting the ball in the air just 10 times. They should have some success vs a mediocre Kansas City run-stop unit, and it will also help them limit possessions in the game by burning the clock. Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes is just 1-2 vs Tennessee in his career with the Chiefs averaging just 23ppg. Henry has averaged 111 yards a game in 3 contests vs Kansas City and has generated 5.4 yards per carry, and I expect him to carry the ball more than the 20 times per game he had in those games. The last 4 times a pair of 5-2 teams have met the home favorite is 0-4 ATS, and in all games the average scoring margin for the home favorite has been just 3.8ppg and going back to the 1993 season no home favorite has ever won by 13 points or more in the battle of 5-2 teams. Make the play on Tennessee.