Tennessee at Jacksonville

The AFC South is turning into quite a heavyweight division with a combined record of 14-8. The winner tonight can claim a piece of first place. The Tennessee Titans, fresh off a victory at Dallas, may look impressive, but to me I see an average team that isn't as good as they appear. The Cowboys loss yesterday solidifies the fact that Big D has lost their way. In addition to beating the 1-4 Cowboys, the Titans have beaten Oakland and a Giants team that was playing awful to open the season. That's not really a great resume. The Cowboys generated 511 yards of offense vs. the Titans defense in that game last week, outgaining Tennessee by nearly 200 yards! The Titans have scored a lot more than their offense indicates they should have. They rank 5th in the league in points but they are ranked in yards and that ratio is simply unsustainable. On the season, the Titans have been out-gained by over 50 yards per game on average - not the sign of a good team that should be laying a field goal on the road to a division rival. The strength of the Titans offense is of course the running game, and while Jacksonville's defense is ranked No. 30 overall, it is the opponents’ aerial attack that is doing most of the damage. Jacksonville's run-stop unit is ranked 12th in the league. The Titans don't have the aerial attack to exploit the biggest weakness of the Jags, so I expect Jax to be able to hold the Titans down offensively with a one-dimensional approach. To start the season, David Garrard looked like he was lost. But he has been super in last two games, going 33-42 for 341 yards, 5 TDs to just one INT. Last October he pasted 332 yards on Tennessee. The Titans have had their problems vs. teams with a winning record where they are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams over .500. The Jags turned the trick here last year as an identical 3-point home dog. They have now gone 10-3 ATS in their last 13 as a home dog of 3 points or less. The Jacksonville fans and players can smell a very nice 4-2 start to the season and I think they are pumped as a result. I like the Jags to at least keep this game close.