Tennessee at Jacksonville

Tennessee has done a nice job in their last two games, keeping the oddsmakers grounded from making Jacksonville a completely prohibitive favorite here. After week five, Tennessee was at or near the bottom of almost everyone's power ratings. Then they nearly beat Indianapolis as an 18 point underdog. They go to upset Washington as an 11 point dog and beat Houston last week. A couple of things have happened. Vince Young is widely popular, so a couple wins make his presence felt, and in the public's eye, this is now a team that has vastly improved. But I am not sold. The other side of the ledger shows a Jacksonville team perhaps a bit less than what they were projected to be. A dissapointment in the eyes of bettors. A look inside, however, will show what appears to be, isn't at all. It's why we like this game so much. Tennessee is coming off a win versus Houston, a game in which they were completely outplayed, by another inferior team. Houston ran up 447 yards and held Tennessee to just 198 with their #28th ranked defense! A 40 yard fumble return, coupled with a 53 yard punt return spelled disaster for Houston, and makes Tennessee look like much more than they are. They beat Washington, one of the top defenses in football last year, but again this year the Skins rank just #26. So the Tennessee offense behind Young, appears to be on the move with 53 points in the last two games, even though defense and special teams scored 14 of them. Young has completed just 48% of his passes, and has an average of just 5.62 yds/attempt. Houston had a 26-10 first down advantage vs Tennessee. Let's go even deeper. They have had four games versus soft defenses: HOU #28, WASH #26, NYJ #29, and IND #20. They managed 82 pts. in those 4 games, yet on the season they rank dead last in time of possession 26:43 minutes a game! They have played three defenses among the caliber of Jacksonville, and were outscored 98-31! Jacksonville has had so many injuries this year, they have fallen from the public eye. Their week 7 loss 7-27 loss to Houston was a killer for them in the eyes of bettors. People are gunshy about them as a big favorite. But they have gotten healthier, and Garrard has outperformed Leftwich at the QB position. Leftwich managed to move the team to a tune of 6.71 yards/attempt in the air, while Garrard has managed 7.52! Tennessee gives up 66% TD'S in the redzone, not a comfortable place for a team that has lost field position to superior defensive teams. All in all this is a perfect setup for us. Tennessee is vastly overrated right now and Jacksonville is underrated. The Jags can't take a breather here, as Tennessee, after 2 wins and a scare of INDY who took the day off vs Tennessee, has sent the warning. When a team brings it at home, versus a much weaker opponent, the result is usually along the lines of SD 40 Tenn 7, or Dallas 45 Tenn 14. We look for a very lopsided game here. One last factor. Projected gametime temperature in Jacksonville 70 degrees. There will be wind, about 15 MPH, and gusts to 27 MPH, that is not condusive for a team that gets behind early to throw downfield, without one coming back the other way! Love this game all the way around.