Tennessee at Houston

The Texans are at game 10, standing at 5-4 as a legitimate wildcard contender in the AFC for the first time in franchise history. That makes this game vital for them to go to next week with the same opportunity. The Titans opened at 0-6 and looked like a team ready to laydown after a 59-0 loss at New England. But, a QB change, a bit of luck and a lot of fight has led to three straight wins. The QB change has led to a more conservative approach on offense. Chris Johnson has seemingly run over every opponent and that strategy seems to be working. The Titans ran for 240 yards on 26 carries early in the season vs the Texans as well. So, look for a heavy dose of Johnson here. The problem for Tennessee is that the Texans are a different team right now. The signing of Bernard Pollard has solidified their defense. Through the first three games Houston was getting run over by everyone. They allowed 614 yards on 99 carries, or 6.2 yards per carry, and over 200 yards a game! But since then,  it has been an entirely different story as they have not allowed any team to rush for even 100 yards. Overall over the last six games, Houston has allowed just 363 yards on 110 carries or 3.3 yards per carry. That is just 60.5 yards a game folks. It has shown up on the scoreboard as well. After allowing 28.7 ppg in their first three, Houston has held their last six foes to 17.7 per game - a full 11 ppg less. The Titans have tightened up the defense as well. While going 0-6 they were allowing 33 ppg. But, in the last three they have allowed a stingy 19 ppg. The Titans have played 11-5-1 to the UNDER in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning record, and the Texans are 7-1 under after allowing 350+ yards in their last game. Jeff Fisher is 34-23 UNDER in his coaching career in games with a total between 43 and 49 points and he's 18-8 UNDER on the road revenging a loss. While the first game was a shootout between these teams, the changes we have seen projects something different here. I like the UNDER.