Tennessee at Baltimore

These a pair of teams that play similar styles: physical, smash-mouth defense, augmented by power running games. Tennessee has a beast in the backfield in RB Derrick Henry (1,540 yards), who just bulldozed the defending champion Patriots (182 yards) in a 20-13 Wild Card upset. Tennessee has won eight of its last 11 games, beating the Chiefs (35-32) and Pats as underdogs. Of the Titans nine regular-season wins, five came on the road, then they went to New England and triumphed. The defense is #12 in rush yards and points allowed (20.7 pg). The Titans are 10-4 UNDER the total in January games. Baltimore topped the Steelers as a home dog the last game, and any winning NFL team off an upset win over a division rival as a home dog is 15-41 ATS when facing another winning team. Baltimore plays great defense, too, at third in points surrendered (17.6 pg), fifth in rushing yards allowed. The Ravens are 13-5 UNDER the total against teams that average 350+ total yards, 22-6 UNDER versus the AFC South, plus 21-10 UNDER against opponents that average 130+ yards rushing. The UNDER is 8-3-1 when these teams clash so look for a close defensive game, one in which the underdog is capable of covering and winning straight-up. Play Tennessee ATS, on the moneyline and also the UNDER.