Tampa Bay at San Francisco

I think back at the beginning of the season when most would have thought the records of these teams would be reversed. But, the Bucs have been a positive surprise, and the Niners a negative one. Signs are that the Niners are on the move and still have a shot in the weak NFC West as no team has established a dominant look. San Francisco was 0-5 allowing 26 ppg in their first five games, but they have turned up the heat defensively having allowed just 17 ppg in their last four games. It's resulted in a 3-1 record, so they seem to have righted the ship somewhat thanks to better defense. The Bucs have played to the UNDER to a 27-11 mark in their last 38 following a win of 14 or more points. And, nine of their last twelve games vs. an NFC opponent have gone UNDER as well. These teams have historically played low scoring games with the last six meetings resulting in five UNDERs. I expect a low-scoring game here.