Tampa Bay at New Orleans

The Saints finally lost a game last week to the Cowboys. Sometimes the prospects of an undefeated season and streak can take its toll as the Saints had to bring it every single week. After suffering that first loss, you can expect a collective sigh of relief. Not that they wanted to lose that game. They certainly wanted to win and go undefeated. But, now that that's out the window, it's only natural to relax a bit and take the foot off the gas for the first time all season. I don't expect to see their "A" game this week, especially facing the 2-12 Bucs, a team they beat 38-7 earlier this season. Tampa Bay's defense could not stop anyone through the first 10 games as they were allowing 29.4 points per game. They have really improved on that side of the ball as they have allowed just 17.3 ppg in their last four games. The problem has been on offense as they have scored just 10 ppg in the last four games. The Saints’ offense, although still a force, has put up two of the three lowest outputs of the season in consecutive games and isn't performing like the machine they were almost all season. With a "breather" type game here, it's not unlikely to see them again produce under their high-flying average. The Saints will likely do enough here to win, but I don't see them interested while Tampa Bay has an opportunity to take down the best team in the NFC, and should be bringing their best to this one, riding the confidence from a 17-point win last week. Since 1983, division home favorites of more than 10 points coming off an upset loss are just 14-41 ATS (25%)! The Saints are just 3-15 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. teams that allow 350+ yards per game. Two touchdowns is a ton of points in a divisional game, regardless of the teams. I like Tampa Bay to find a way to keep this close enough to get the cover. I also like the UNDER. The Bucs’ improved defense (17.3 ppg allowed over the last month) has them bringing five straight UNDERs into this one. They have also gone 9-3 UNDER in their last twelve vs. winning teams. Despite their high-flying offense, New Orleans has gone 4-3 UNDER at home this season and 3-1 UNDER in division games. Take the Bucs and the UNDER here.