Tampa Bay at Minnesota

The Buccaneers made a lot of changes this offseason starting with the hiring of Greg Schiano from Rutgers. Schiano brought in a new attitude and some new players to fill a lot of holes, but the holes on defense remain. It's nice to have a renewed outlook to open the season, but last week's loss has to dampen the Bucs' psyche, as they slipped to 2-4 on the season. Overall, this team is just 2-15 in their last 17 games. That 2-15 mark includes 0-9 straight-up in their last nine road games. They have been poor, despite a schedule that has seen them play three straight at home. The Bucs had a bye week in the middle, so they have not played a road game since September 23rd. Blowing a 14-point lead at home last week gives little hope for this team going forward. With a win tonight, the Vikings could double their win total from a year ago at the halfway point of the season. They are a real player in the NFC North having already posted a signature win over San Francisco. The Vikings have re-established homefield advantage having gone 4-0 on the season here. Since 2002, NFL winning home teams coming off a home win when facing a losing team win their games straight-up 85% of the time. Thursday night home favorites in the NFL win 81% of the time since 1989. If they are a favorite of at least a field goal and coming off a win, they win 91% of the time. While there's a chance Tampa Bay finds a way to cover this spread, I think there's very little chance that they win the game straight-up. If you believe the Vikes have an 85% chance of winning this game (I do), then the fair moneyline odds would be -570. So, at -230, we have a great bet. Play on Minnesota on the moneyline.