Tampa Bay at Jacksonville

The Bucs haven’t won two straight all year and I think that trend will continue. I keep waiting for Jacksonville rookie QB Leftwich to have a good game (the rookie jitters are gone) and this might be the week. He seems to like his new target, Kevin Johnson (released by Cleveland two weeks ago), who caught 5 passes for 77 yards in his debut. Fred Taylor continues to run well (919 yards on the season) and should have a good day against a Tampa Bay rushing defense that hasn’t faired well against the run, especially versus straight-ahead tough backs like Taylor. The Jaguars should be able to keep the Tampa offense in check as the Jags boast the league’s third-best rushing defense. It should be a tough day for Tampa’s anemic running game which sorely misses Mike Alstott. Home dogs cover about two thirds of the time when facing an opponent off a close win (6-2 this year, 9-3 in 2002).