Houston coach Dom Capers doesn't win in the preseaon. His Texans don't win a lot in the regular season, either, but that's another story. Capers and the Texans went 0-4 last year and are 1-2 this season. On the other side, Jon Gruden wins in the preseason. He's one of the best in term of ATS performance in August. Underdogs vs. "bad" coaches like Capers cover the spread nearly two thirds of the time. Also, dogs with winning records on the preseason do very well when facing losing teams. One unit on the Bucs.
Miami is giving up very little and scoring even less this preseason. The Saints have also been involved in low-scoring games. These facts are keeping this total low. But, I've got a feeling this one is going over. They have to score some points sometime, don't they? Both offenses will be trying to prove to themselves, their fans and the media that they can actually score more than 20 points. Games in which winning home teams are off an ATS win and facing a losing team have gone OVER the total 21 out o 24 times over the last 10 seasons. One unit on the OVER.