Tampa Bay at Denver

Don't look now but the Tampa Bay Bucs look like a playoff team. They have won four of their last five with the only loss coming by a single point vs. Atlanta. The offense has come a long way since a year ago with the addition of Doug Martin in the backfield who has gone for over 1,000 yards already at 5.3 yards per carry. Josh Freeman has thrown fewer interceptions on the year than has Peyton Manning. The Bucs’ offense had gone for 112 points over a three-game stretch, but over the last three they have scored fewer points in each consecutive week. It isn't that they have stalled out they were just scoring at an unsustainable pace, but are still producing enough to win or stick around. Denver was also on an unsustainable offensive pace, scoring 30 or more in five straight weeks until their 17 points vs. Kansas City last week. Denver has won six straight games, but three of the last four have come by 8 points or less. We have faded them two weeks in a row as their stock was simply too high and it has worked out both times. We're doing it again here thanks to their win last week. The Denver defense has been coming on of late as well. So while the offense settles down to a more normal output, I expect that this game becomes a bit more defensive than most might think. Tampa Bay has thrived on the road vs. a team with a winning home record where they are a sizzling 14-3 ATS in their last 17, while the Broncos are just 16-34 ATS in their last 50 home games. These teams have made their offensive runs to build the total here, but look for this one to not make it out of the 40s. The Bucs are 9-2 ATS on the season, continually undervalued. And here they remain undervalued, getting a touchdown. Take the points on Tampa Bay and take the UNDER.