Tampa Bay at Dallas

Dallas is back home following its awful performance at Indianapolis last week, but it won't matter much if its offense continues to be inept in the red zone. The Cowboys got away with it the previous week when they eked out a victory over the Eagles in overtime. The fact they are #31 in the NFL in red zone offense caught up with them against the Colts. Lack of execution, dropped passes and bad play-calling have all contributed to Dallas' offensive woes and it was outgained 370-292 versus the Colts. Tampa Bay's defense has been decent lately, allowing only 18.5 points the last four games and all of them have gone UNDER. The Cowboys went UNDER by 23.5 points last week and they have stayed UNDER in three of their last five games. The UNDER is 20-8-1 in the Buccaneers' last 29 December games and the Cowboys are 13-3 UNDER in their last 16 games in December. Also, Dallas is 16-7 UNDER its last 23 games overall and it has gone UNDER nine of its last 13 versus the NFC. Tampa Bay has covered the number in five of its last six games in December and they have covered three of their last four overall. The Cowboys can't be trusted laying this many points, so take the Buccaneers and the UNDER.