Tampa Bay at Carolina

Tampa Bay blew a shot to clinch the NFC South last week in a 23-13 loss at home to the Saints as a favorite. In their last four games as a favorite, the Bucs averaged 16.75 points while losing two of those straight up. The Buccaneers are 24-43 ATS against teams that average 5.7 or fewer yards per pass. Carolina lost to Tampa Bay in the first meeting on the road, 21-18, in December but covered. The Panthers are 16-6 ATS off a road loss by 21+ points, plus 19-7 ATS after scoring six or fewer points. They're also 38-21 ATS at home off a non-conference tilt, 82-56 ATS revenging a loss to an opponent, and 35-16 ATS at home after getting outgained by 100 or more total yards in the last game. Play Carolina as a Max Play.