Tampa Bay at Atlanta

The Atlanta Falcons started the season at 5-0 a year ago and sure looked like a team ready to go deep into the playoffs. They averaged 32.4 points per game in those five games, but the offense came to a screeching halt. The 162 they scored through five games almost topped the mark they generated in their last 11 games, 172. The defense held their own allowing 30+ points just two times while surrendering 21 or less in seven games. Tampa Bay won just six games, and the young Bucs were wildly inconsistent. They had a five-game stretch allowing 30+ in four of them and followed that by allowing 18.2 points per game in their next five, while closing the season allowing 30 points per game in their last four. The offense followed a similar pattern. They scored 30+ in three games, all within a six-week period, and did not get there again, before or after. Their games against the Falcons were amazingly similar, winning 23-20, and 23-19, and both games came in UNDER the total. That is a lot closer to the average NFC South game over the years which has seen an average of 43.5 points scored. I don't see where the extra points are coming from in this one, especially in Week 1, and the fact that the NFC South has a long history of defense first, as they are 73-93-2 O/U in the division history, leaves just one way to go here. Make the play on the UNDER.