Tampa Bay at Atlanta

The oddsmakers just don't seem to believe that this Tampa Bay team is for real. But this team is 5-2 and an upset win here would give them sole possession of first place in the NFC South and they have had an extra week to prepare for this one. Last year when they were 3-13 they went to Atlanta and were instilled as a a +12 dog, so the oddsmakers are saying this 5-2 version is just 3 points better than the 3-13 team from a year ago. Hmmm. I think we have some value here, especially with how tough they have played the Falcons. Last year, the Bucs lost by a field goal in Atlanta when it took a Falcons TD with 23 ticks left on the clock to pull it out. The Bucs outgained the Falcons in that game. The year before, they took the Falcons into OT before losing by 3. Tampa outgained Atlanta in that one too! The Bucs have been under the radar and have now gone 7-0 ATS in their last seven on the road vs. a team with a winning home record. The Falcons meanwhile are just 8-18-1 vs. a team with a winning home record. The Falcons are just 30-48 ATS in their last 58 games following a home win and 23-39 ATS after scoring 30+ in their last game. Tampa Bay has a bit of a chip on their shoulder, playing the no-respect card well. They should cover this large number.