St. Louis at Tennessee

I said it last week and I'll say it again. The Titans are overrated right now. They reeled off five straight wins after the return of Vince Young. Suddenly Vince Young is a great QB and the Titans are the 13-3 team from 2008. I aint buying it. The reality is that this team is 5-7. In their five wins, they benefitted from a lot of luck. They got an 8-3 positive turnover margin vs. weak competition. They beat Jacksonville thanks to a +2 turnover margin. They beat San Francisco thanks to a +4 turnover margin. They also beat two losing teams in Buffalo and Houston. You could say the one quality win they had was over Arizona, but remember, they needed a miracle 99-yard drive and last second TD to avoid what should have been a loss. The 13-3 Titans team from last year had eight double-digit wins and was beating up everyone. This Titans team has a total of two on the season and, because of a five-game winning streak, they are now being treated like last year's team, laying very heavy wood. While things have certainly changed since their 0-6 start, Tennessee hasn't changed as much as people think and they have not scored more than 20 points in their last three games. The Rams are certainly not a good football team, but they have been a lot more competitive of late. In the first half of the season, they lost games by 28, 19, 35, 28 and 36 points. But in the second half, they haven't lost a game by more than 10 points and they have gone 4-1 ATS in the process. That includes games against high-octane offenses like New Orleans and Arizona! St. Louis was a 14-point dog to the 11-0 Saints four weeks ago. Now they are getting similar points from the Titans? Think about how overrated that makes Tennessee. This is also apt to be a running game with the Titans giving Chris Johnson a lot of carries as he tries to eclipse the NFL rushing mark, and the Rams biggest offensive threat is Steven Jackson on the ground. With the clock churning a lot, it makes two TDs a hard number to topple in a shortened game. I like the Rams here.