St. Louis at New England

There was a time when Bill Belichick went all out to win these games as he started his coaching career in the preseason going 13-4. He has since had a losing straight up record at 12-14. Steve Spagnuolo has issues to deal with here as he attempts to change the culture of losing with the Rams. He has a 4-2 mark in the preseason which includes finishing on a winning note a perfect 2-0 in week three and four. Yes, this is the most "real" game of the preseason, with starters typically seeing the most action. But, 7.5 points is a ton in the preseason. Lines above 7 have occured only three times in the past seven years. The ATS record of the dog in those games? 3-0. Preseason games are typically low scoring affairs, but such has not been the case for the Patriots. They are 7-2 to the OVER in their last nine preseason games and are allowing 21 ppg in those nine, including 25.5 ppg in the last two week three contests. Their first two games this season have averaged 45 points. I like St. Louis and the OVER in this one.