St. Louis at Minnesota

We faded St. Louis in a big way a few weeks ago on Monday night when they were getting 6.5 points from the Bears. If you recall that pick, we talked about how bad St. Louis really is. They had 5 wins going into that game but they were squeak-out wins against very bad teams. Without the help of a huge positive turnover margin, they wouldn't have even won half of those. They were crushed by the Bears but have since won two straight games. One was a close overtime win last week vs. Washington. The other was a win over Oakland - again with the help of a +5 turnover ratio! The bottom line here is that St. Louis is probably the league's worst 7-7 team. Without a creampuff schedule and +12 turnover ratio, they could easily be 3-11. Minnesota has their own problems which is why they are a home dog here. After starting 4-2 they have lost 7 of their last 9 games. The last two were very damaging as they got spanked by a Jets team they were supposed to beat and they lost in primetime to Green Bay, scoring 7 points. But Minnesota is the better team! They are allowing 5 points per game less than St. Louis. The Rams have allowed 30+ points eight times already this season - more than half of their games! On the road this season they are averaging 16.9 points per game. Were these good teams they faced on the road? Not for the most part as their road opponents included San Francisco, Arizona, Green Bay and Oakland. Minnesota's offense has struggled all year long but they have faced some superb defenses including Carolina, Buffalo, New England, Miami and Chicago twice. Against the remaining teams they averaged a respectable 20 points per game. QB Tavaris Jackson has another full week under his belt as the starter. St. Louis is technically still in the playoff hunt but their hopes are dim. The reason for their recent success has been Steven Jackson. Unfortunately for the Rams, Minnesota has the best run defense in the entire league. The Vikings are 19-7 ATS as a home underdog and we like them a lot here to cover this number.