St. Louis at Carolina

It never ceases to amaze me how linesmakers and the public continue to fail to adjust to reality. Carolina, the preseason darling, can do no wrong in their minds. What we see, however, is a very average team laying a touchdown to an equivalent opponent. The Panthers are 5-4 SU and 2-5 ATS. They have given up more points than they have scored this year. They're ranked 24th in the league in offense and 17th in defense. They are coming off a 14 point win vs. Tampa Bay on Monday night so they are feeling pretty good about themselves, which works in our favor here. But, they really are no better than the team they are facing on Sunday. St. Louis' defense is definitely suspect, ranked 26th. But their offense is 7th. They should be able to keep up with a weak Carolina offense. St. Louis' defense has looked bad against a few opponents this year but against bad offenses like Carolina's, they have done OK. They gave up 10 to Denver, 20 to San Francisco, 14 to Arizona. The teams that have scored over 20 on them all have offenses that are ranked higher than Carolina's (Detroit, Seattle, San Diego, KC). The point here is that these teams are about equal and we are getting a touchdown on one of them. That's value. To top it off, the Rams need this more than does Carolina. St. Louis dropped a squeaker last week to Seattle, dropping them to 4-5. Another loss and they are in big trouble. We expect a top effort and a cover from the Rams. The icing on the cake? Carolina is 2-11 ATS as home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points the past three seasons. Rams here.