St. Louis at Arizona

I will buy into the fact that St. Louis is an improved team. I also agree that Arizona is no where near the same team without Kurt Warner lining up under center. Arizona has been downright awful this season and we faded them to success last Monday night. But that was last week. What I won't buy into, however, that St. Louis is suddenly a TD better than Arizona on a neutral field (what this 3.5 line for the road team is telling us). Let's examine the facts. St. Louis is 1-4 on the road this season, making them 3-20 on the road in their last 23 games. One of those wins came by 3 points vs. Denver, who is 1-6 in their last seven games. Last year they beat Detroit by a TD - a team that went 1-15. And, their third win was vs. Washington by 2 points. That means they cover this game one time in their last 23 on the road. Arizona is bad but they can hold their own against a team like St. Louis. At home, the Cards are respectable, having out scored their foes on average 23-19. The Rams meanwhile are getting outscored on the road by 6 points per game. St. Louis is just 4-13 ATS in the division in their last 17 and the Cards are a perfect 6-0 ATS as a home dog of 3.5-10 in their last six. People are overreacting to St. Louis' win last week, expecting them to go from 2-20 on the road to producing back-to-back road wins. They are also overreacting to what they saw on Monday night from Arizona. I expect the Cards to show some pride and show up for this game. Classic contrarian play here on the ugly home dog.