Seattle at San Francisco

For a team with a losing record, Seattle's stats are pretty good. The offense is #15 in yards and second in rushing with 137.8 yards per game despite not having Marshawn Lynch at 100%. And all that great defensive talent? They are doing a better job than you might think at fourth in the NFL in total yards allowed. The Seahawks have dropped two straight games, blowing a 17-point fourth-quarter lead in an overtime defeat at Cincinnati before allowing two late TDs in last week's 27-23 setback against Carolina. The offense has been scoring enough points, the defense has just had some late inexplicable collapses. Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in division games, 5-0 in Thursday TV games and the Seahawks are 17-8-1 ATS following a spread loss. Quarterback Russell Wilson has finally established a strong connection with tight end Jimmy Graham, who had eight receptions for 140 yards the last game. San Francisco was expected to take a giant step back this season after losing so much talent in the offseason, including their head coach, and they have. The 49ers are on a 3-8-1 ATS run, including 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games on grass. San Francisco's pass defense has been especially vulnerable, ranking last in the league with 306.2 yards allowed per game, which is why the 49ers are on a 4-1 run OVER the total. The Seahawks match-up much better and are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. Amnd, since teh arrival of Pete Carroll in Seatte, the Seahawks are 19-10 ATS as a favorite in this range (3.5 to 9.5 points) and 20-10 ATS vs. bad defensive teams like SF (teams allowing 350+ yards per game). Take Seattle and the OVER.