Seattle at Minnesota

If there was ever a spot on the Vikings’ schedule to take a breather, this would be it. They are coming off of two division games, and have another one waiting in the wings next week. The Vikings are at 8-1 and have all but clinched the NFC North. The Seahawks, at 3-6 certainly aren't going to get their attention to "bring it" so to speak, this week. Seattle is 0-4 on the road and have not come within 11 points of anyone, so why would they come within 11 of one of the best two teams in the NFC? Because this is the NFL and this is where the money lies. For starters, 8-1 teams as a home double-digit favorite cover just 33% of the time, and have lost 33% of the time straight up! The Seahawks lost two games without Matt Hasselback at QB, so they aren't as bad as the record looks. Hasselbeck is back in prime form having passed for over 300 yards in each of his last two games. The Seahawks have shown some guts as they have come back in their next game after allowing 30+ points to go 4-0 ATS. The Vikings simply are not a good big chalk team. The last 13 times they have been favored by 10.5 or more, they are a woeful 1-11-1 ATS. They really have been a poor home team against the number as well. This year they are 4-0 straight-up at home but just 1-3 ATS. Going back to last season, they are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games! Minnesota is getting a lot of love right now based on their record and coming off a game in which they won by 17 points, allowing just 10 to the Lions. But, under Brad Childress, the Vikings are just 3-12 ATS after a game in which they allowed 14 or fewer points. I like the Seahawks to hang closer than this line.