Seattle at Cincinnati

The 2-2 Seattle Seahawks head to Cincinnati to take on the 4-0 Bengals. So this line is about right, eh? Not so fast. The Bengals have become a force on offense at home where they have torched opposing defenses for over 30 points per game in their last 16 here, topping the 40-point mark four times in the process. However, the Seahawks are no slouch on offense, as they have scored 20 or more on the road in 9 of their last 12. Seattle is in a rare road dog situation, but they have risen to the occasion in their last 17 at 11-5-1 ATS. Seattle escaped becoming 1-3 with a controversial call to end their game last week, turning a potential loss into a win. The Bengals may be 4-0, but after limiting Oakland offensively in game one, their 4-0 record has hidden the sins of a defense that has allowed over 400 yards per game since, and over the last three games, that rates out to be the fifth-worst numbers in the league. Their biggest problem has been down and distance on defense, being unfavorable, and opponents have moved the chains successfully 41.9% of the time in the three games. Russell Wilson continues to show why he is an elite QB. He has been sacked 18 times on the season, and has a 12.4% sack rate, highest in the league, but despite six sacks last week, through it all he still went 20-27 for 287 yards. The bottom line here is going to be who gets the stops late in the game, as this should be close, so you have to feel at this time that Seattle is poised to be that team on defense to get it done. The Seahawks pack their best on the road vs. a team with a winning home record at 11-3 ATS in their last 14. Since the arrival of Pete Carroll in Seattle, the Seahawks are 16-5 ATS after two straight games of holding opponents to 17 or less and 6-0 on the road vs. elite offenses (teams averaging 6+ yards per play). Marvin Lewis is 18-29 ATS in Cincy during October. In addition, the total has been topped in four of the last five played in this series and under Carroll, Seattle is 25-15 OVER as an underdog. Grab Seattle as a dog and also play the OVER.