Seattle at Chicago

The Seattle Seahawks have alternated impressive weeks with bad ones so far this season. That's actually an improvement over their dismal season a year ago. They are playing fairly well on defense, allowing 19.2 ppg which is good for 11th best in the league. Only one team has scored more than 20 points on them. But, that team had a quarterback that could rack up the yards and points (Kyle Orton). They face a Bears team this week that has been a pleasant surprise with Jay Cutler having a good season (100+ QB rating). So, Chicago will score here. Can Seattle keep up? I think so. The Bears defense playing inspired football, having kept all opponents to 20 or fewer points. But what seems like an easy Bears victory may not come so easily. As we have seen underdogs getting it done week after week in the NFL and the Bears are not in a good spot. They are a dismal 9-20-2 ATS in their last 31 games following a straight-up win. They are also just 4-12-2 ATS after a big defensive effort allowing 15 points or less. They have also failed to make the home field profitable as they are just 6-13-1 ATS as a home favorite in their last 20. The NFL is somewhat like the stock market if you pick the right spots. The Bears are full of good news, which means it is time to sell. I like Seattle to keep this game close. I also like the OVER. The Seahawks are an overwhelmingly OVER-oriented team playing on grass at 30-13 OVER in their last 43. They are also 35-20 OVER in their last 55 on the road vs. a winning team and 31-14 OVER in their last 45 games vs. teams that allow under 18 points per game. Meanwhile the Bears are 19-8 OVER as a home favorite in their last 27 in that role.  This series has seen four straight top the total. I like Seattle and the OVER in this one.