Seattle at Arizona

Whoa – an 11-3 team is a home underdog of more than a touchdown. What?!? After a lackluster 3-3 start to the season, the Seattle Seahawks have come to life, at least on the defensive side of the ball. They have allowed just 27 points in their last four games. That in and of itself will have a lot of bettors on Seattle in this game. But as good as those numbers sound, there have been six teams over the last 25 years in the NFL that held opponents to less than 34 points over their last four games and they proceeded to go 1-5 ATS if they were a road favorite against a winning team. The reason? Overreaction and line value. Sure, Seattle is the better team here, but this is too many points for an 11-3 team to be receiving at home. Seattle has also scored 24 or less points in their last five games which makes it hard to cover such a large number here, especially on the road vs. one the NFL’s best defenses. If the above history pans out and Seattle scores 20 or fewer points, teams as road favorites of more than 7 in that situation are 10-80 ATS! The Cards are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a home dog of more than 7.5. From week 14 on, there have been just 65 home dogs of a touchdown or more. The home dogs in those games are 42-20-3 against the number. Make the play on Arizona.