San Francisco vs. Kansas City

Bettors don't want to believe anything is pre-determined. Who cares that Seattle scored on a safety to open their game against Denver six years ago? Who cares that the Pats took a 7-0 lead on Seattle five years back? The Broncos jump out to a 3-0 lead over Carolina four years ago. The Eagles jump out to a 3-0 lead two years ago over the Pats, New England goes up 3-0 to start the game last year vs. the Rams ? so what? Both teams still have a good shot at winning, right? Actually no, not really. Let's have a look at the numbers which tell a different story. Through the first 53 Super Bowls, the team that has scored first has won an amazing 75% of the time (40-13) and has gone 39-12-2 against the spread in the process. It doesn't matter if that team was the underdog or the favorite - the team to put up points first has a huge advantage in winning this game. The last nine Super Bowls have seen the YES come through on this prop bet eight times. New England's epic comeback three years ago was the lone loss. Over the past 31 years, the YES on this has hit 21 times (70%). At a 70% win rate, the fair line on this bet is around -233. At the longer term rate of 75%, the fair line is -300. Yet, we get odds of -175 on this bet, providing value. Bet the YES on this prop for a Max Play.