San Francisco at Washington

The Wunderdog laying 12.5 points? Has he gone mad? Maybe, but maybe not. I have been playing more favorites this year than normal but so far they have been very small ones at -3 or less. Come to think of it, we haven't played a -12.5 favorite in years. But, this year the discrepancies between the elite and the terrible are huge and the big spreads are getting covered more often than in years past. I think Washington is going to manhandle the Niners here. San Francisco is just that bad. My power ratings put them dead last in the league at this point - lower than Houston! And, cross-country, on the road, they are in trouble on Sunday. The Niners are scoring 8.5 per game on the road while giving up 36.5. Against Washington's defense, the San Francisco offense is going to be doing a lot of... well... punting. Alex Smith is in for a verrrrrrrry long day. If he was able to muster 3 against Indianapolis in his debut, he might not get any today against the fifth ranked defense in the league. On the flipside, the Redskins offense is starting to click. After a slow start with Patrick Ramsey, they are averging 20 points per game over their last three with Brunnel at the helm. Last week they dominated KC in every way shape and form but came away with the loss due soley to a -3 turnover differential. They put up nearly 400 yards and 26 first downs against the Chiefs! They own the sixth ranked offense in the league at this point. Against San Francisco's LAST place defense, the Redskins look to put up quite a few points on Sunday. I believe this spread to be off by about 4 points due to the deceptiveness of Washington's loss last week. They should have won that game and if they did, they'd be 4-1 right now and this line would be over two touchdowns. The Skins haven't forced a turnover in 4 games. Those things tend to even out over the long haul and if that stat evens out for this team, watch out. The fact that they are -8 on turnover differential and still own a winning record says a lot. San Francisco benched Rattay who had beat out Smith for the starting QB in the preseason. The reason Rattay struggled was not his fault - it was this horrible San Francisco offensive line. It will only be worse with Smith behind center as demonstrated in their 28-3 loss in Smith's first game. Ladies and gentleman, this is a mismatch of monster proportions and I don't see a Washington "letdown" likely, given the fact that they feel hungry for a win after two close losses. They are due for a blowout performance (they haven't won by more than 3 points this year). Washington breaks out for 25+ points in this one and San Francisco struggles to reach 10. Lay the big number and do it for three stars.