San Francisco at St. Louis

It has been a long time since the St. Louis Rams have been a .500 or better team this late in the season. In fact, it's been nine years, but with a win over San Francisco, they can achieve that result. Todd Gurley has been a man amongst boys in the Rams backfield, as he has been tearing off big chunks of yardage. The problem the Rams face is where else can they find some offense? How about this ugly stat. Over the last three Rams games, Gurley's rushing yards have been about half the Rams team total yardage (45.3%). San Francisco is going to load up the box, and make those yards tough to come by, and as it is St. Louis is moving the chains on third down just 28.8% of the time. The Niners offense was stymied by a motivated Seattle defense last week, but Colin Kaepernick passed the ball well in his previous two games, with the Niners generating their top two offensive games in terms of points on the season. This line is just simply too high. The Rams have been favored by more than a touchdown just one time since 2005, and the last 15 times they have been a greater than a touchdown favorite, they have gone 3-12 ATS, losing six of them outright! The offense just isn't there for a big number, so take the points on San Francisco.