San Francisco at Seattle

If you look at the final score from last week's Arizona-San Francisco game, it looked like Arizona had control of that game from start to finish. Heck, they won by 10 points. But, if you look at the game statistically, without seeing the score, you would have a difficult time deciding who won. The Niners actually outgained the Cardinals, but the key to the game was five San Francisco turnovers! Even with the turnovers, the Niners were in the game and the defense, which was on the field for almost 38 minutes, did a great job keeping them in the game. To win by just 10 points with 5-0 turnover margin is embarassing. The Cards had five extra possessions and gained less total yards! The Niners held the Cards to 2-for-7 in the red-zone. It is also worth noting that JT O'Sullivan looked good, completing 70% of his passes, and Frank Gore almost reached 100 yards on just 14 carries. San Franscisco is certainly undervalued here. The Seahawks were manhandled at the line of scrimmage all game vs the Bills and Hasselback was dropped five times. Consequently he completed just 17 of 41 passes. With the way the 49ers defense performed last week, recording three sacks of their own, this becomes interesting because the Seahawk offensive line was completely outplayed. This is an overlay and in a divisional game. Laying a TD is not usually a good bet, but getting one with a team that appears under the radar is laden with value, and I'll go with the Niners.