San Francisco at New York

The banged-up Giants are 2-2 on the season and have been a big dog twice along with a small favorite twice, but after an upset win at Buffalo, they are now a significant favorite? Not so fast. The young Giants secondary is still ailing and ranked dead last against the pass, allowing 316.3 yards per game. They would have allowed even more last week if run-oriented Buffalo hadn't negated several big passing plays with foolish penalties. The OVER is 4-1 when the Giants face the NFC, as well as 7-3 OVER on fieldturf. San Francisco is in town, fifth in the NFL in rushing. The 49ers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games in October, as well as 3-0-1 ATS on fieldturf. Since the start of the 2013 season, the Niners are 7-0 ATS on the road vs. bad defensive teams (teams like New York that allow 5.7+ yards per play). And, under Tom Coughlin, the G-Men are 8-19 ATS at home after allowing 14 or fewer points last game. The Giants have two huge divisional games on deck against rivals Philadelphia and Dallas. This is a look-ahead spot for the home team in a game that will feature more offense and scoring than oddsmakers expect. Play San Francisco and the OVER.