San Francisco at New Orleans

Based on the first three games played by each of these two teams, this looks like a game that should be a high scoring affair, but I disagree. The Saints have played against some poor defenses, and the Niners have not been, nor are they ready to be, a high scoring team on the road. Yes, they got 33 in OT vs. Seattle. But that is just one game. Last year they had 37 against Arizona, also in OT, and scored just 12 ppg in their other seven road games. The points won't come as easy for the Saints this week either, as they are going to face a credible defense for the first time this season. Their first three games were against defenses that average 23rd in the league. The Niners have stepped things up as through three games they are now a top 10 defense. Under Mike Nolan, this Niners team is 11-3 UNDER to a total above 42 up to 49. They are also a perfect 7-0 UNDER vs. good passing teams (those averaging 235+ ypg). I think this game gets some scoring, but at the highest posted total of the week, I think it falls short expectations.