San Francisco at New Orleans

The San Francisco 49ers learned something last week that perhaps they already knew. Colin Kaepernick can be an effective QB in the NFL and he may be the best QB on their roster. Kaepernick had a big game last week against one of the NFL's best defenses, throwing for 232 yards on just 23 passes with no INTs. He basically tore up the Bears. You can be sure that he earned himself a few more snaps a game. Alex Smith is still listed as questionable, but it certainly doesn't appear to matter. Either QB here will be able to score against one of the worst defenses inthe league. The Saints have risen from an 0-4 hole to start the season to get back to .500, but the schedule has been kind with six losing teams in 10 games. This will be their ultimate test back to respectability. Despite a strong offense, the defense remains a severe liability, allowing 27.3 points per game on the season. The Saints offense is very potent but they aren't going to be scoring at will against this Niners defense that allows just 13.4 points per game. The 49ers find themselves in a historically favorable spot as teams off a 19 + point win or more on Monday Night have gone 59-34-2 ATS since 1989, which is a cover rate of 63.4%. San Francisco has been cover machines now at 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29, and would like nothing better than to knock the Saints out of the playoffs picture. Over the past three seasons, the Niners are 9-1 ATS vs. bad defenses (those allowing 24+ ppg). Take San Francisco here.