San Francisco at Indianapolis

The San Francisco 49ers saw their game kick 11 FGs last week, and zero TDs. Unfortunately, six were made by Arizona, in an 18-15 loss. This has left the total here a bit on the low side. What is more random that both teams were going up and down the field the entire game and just could not push the ball over the goal line. That was at least 11 scoring opportunities by both teams, none of which were converted to TDs. I would think a revision to the mean is likely to occur in this one. Indianapolis has seen three of their four games play OVER the total, as the defense has allowed 40+ twice already. The Niners have proven they can score against a mediocre defense with 39 against the Rams a couple of weeks ago. San Francisco has a long history of playing over the total against a bad running team, those that average 3.5 yards per carry or less on the season where they are 41-20 to the OVER in their last 61 when facing them. Play on the OVER in this one.