San Francisco at Indianapolis

The Colts have been one of the NFL's biggest no shows when it comes to the NFLX, but I like them here. How can we turn down points on a home dog? Home underdogs have performed very well historically in the preseason and I have a system that backs a subset of these that has produced a 55-21 (72%) ATS mark. This system went 4-2 in 2007 and has produced back-to-back 2-0 years since then. This line reflects the coaching tendencies but we don't have a large subset from either Caldwell or Singletary and I think the line is an overreaction. I like the Colts plus the points. You can get +3 at +105 or +3.5 at -115. If you have a choice, I suggest the latter. I also like the UNDER here. Games with home underdogs go UNDER at a rate exceeding 65%. Last season under Singletary, the Niners went 3-1 UNDER, averaging just 16.2 points per game. Indy scored 12.5 per game in the preseason last year while allowing just 14 per game at home. I like the Colts and the UNDER here.