San Francisco at Detroit

The Detroit Lions are an improved team from the one that started the season at 1-7. A lot of the improvement has occurred because they finally found a steady running game, rushing for over 100 yards in five straight games. That has opened up the passing game for Matthew Stafford, and the Lions have been finding the end-zone with more frequency. San Francisco made a move several weeks ago to turn the offense over to Blaine Gabbert, as Colin Kaepernick appeared to lose his way. Gabbert has held a respectable 82.8 passer rating since taking over, and did throw for 263 yards last week vs. a tough Cincinnati secondary. He should find some room against the Lions average secondary in this one. The Lions are getting far too much respect here, however, as this is still a mediocre team. Since 1989, this franchise has been favored by more than a TD just 29 times, and are 11-18 ATS in those games. They have been even worse lately as they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven as better than a TD favorite. Detroit has also lost two of their last five straight-up to boot. They have also allowed close to 23 points per game in these games over the last eight all in the past four years. The Niners have been a better team on turf where they are 4-1-1 ATS, and they have come back off a loss to go 5-2 ATS in their last seven. The Lions have covered just six of their last 29 after scoring 30+ in their previous game, and own a 5-1 mark to the OVER in their last six at home. San Francisco is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings as well. Take the points on San Francisco and also play the OVER.