San Francisco at Denver

No team has been up and down like the 49ers this season. They have had huge leads like 28-3 vs. Dallas before letting the Cowboys creep back in the game. The Niners gave up 21 non-offensive points vs. Philadelphia and won. San Francisco also fell down 14-0 to St. Louis before coming back to win. The Niners have found their swagger, and this will be a big measuring stick game for them, heading to Denver to take on the Broncos and Peyton Manning. San Francisco gave up 17 points or less in 10 games last season, and this season they have not held any team to under 17 points. While the defense has been good, it is not as good as last season's. However, over the last three games the offense has been able to produce points enough. So expect San Francisco to score more, and allow more than most expect. Denver was supposed to be a lot better on defense this season, but they have yet to hold any opponent to under 17 points, so I think we are going to see a lot of points in this one. It's hard to perceive this Denver team any other way than playing high-scoring games, and they have played more games OVER the total in their last 80 games than any other team as they are 53-26-1 to the OVER. Denver is 124-84-5 to the OVER at home in their last 213 here, so don't look for a defensive battle. While Denver scores at home, San Francisco wins on grass as the Niners own the NFL's best mark on grass at 30-13-1 ATS in their last 44 such games. While this is a big game, it is still an inter-conference game and Denver has to play San Diego next Thursday night. Teams tend to conserve energy when knowing that they have to go at it again just four days later. When playing as a home favorite before a Thursday game teams are 59-77 ATS. And, this is exactly the type of team that Harbaugh loves playing. Under Harbaugh, the Niners are 11-2 ATS vs. teams at .750 or better, 16-6 ATS vs. teams that allow 235+ passing yards per game and 17-5 ATS vs. good offenses (teams racking up 350+ yards per game). Take San Francisco and the OVER.