San Francisco at Arizona

I took San Fran to upset the World Champs last week and they did so easily. But, this is a different week. This week they are laying nearly a TD on the road against a poor team. Letdown City, baby. Arizona is refreshed and focused on the Niners after their bye week. Much of Arizona’s trouble this year has to do with turnovers. In their first six games, they have lost seven fumbles and thrown 11 interceptions. Their takeaways have been equally bad leaving them with a league-worst -14 TO margin (nearly double the next worst team at -8). I haven’t been in their locker room but I would wager they spent a lot of time over the past two weeks figuring out how to rectify this problem. If they can keep the turnovers under control the second half of the season, their performance against-the-spread will dramatically improve. San Francisco is by far the better team but I like the big home dog in desperate need of a win, off a bye, to come out fightin’. Teams in such situations normally do well, covering the spread about two thirds of the time.