San Francisco at Arizona

ESPN can't be excited about this matchup. If not for bettors, who would have an interest in this game?!? As crazy as it sounds, a win here keeps either of these 3-7 teams right in the thick of the playoff hunt. My computer matchup for this game (not an official pick) predicts a very close game. The money here is favoring the Niners and I think there is good reason. Despite a dissapointing campaign thus far in 2010, I think San Francisco has some positive things going with Troy Smith under center. Last season it appeared the San Francisco 49ers were turning the corner, finishing strong and getting to 8-8 at the year. They were projected by many to be the team to beat in the NFC West this season. But, at 3-7, they have been bad and it certainly hasn't gone as planned. But is all lost? Is it really that bad? The Niners haven't showed it in the win column, but they are actually putting up better numbers on both sides of the ball than they did a year ago. They have increased their relative offensive and defensive ranks accordingly from where they closed a year ago. Last week they were humiliated at home by Tampa Bay 21-0 which is one reason I like them here. Teams off a shutout and then heading on the road the next week tend to play good, going 40-26 ATS. Arizona was beaten badly last week, suffering their fifth straight loss. This is a team lacking confidence and even their head coach admitted that this week saying, "We are not really a confident team right now. I think it's a natural human emotion when you've lost five in a row and you've lost some of the games the way we have. It's definitely something that plays into it. This game is about momentum. It's about confidence and we don't have a lot to base positive things on here lately." The Cardinals knew the offense was going to step back a bit with the retirement of Kurt Warner, but they did not expect this, as they rank 31st in the league. Their defense has had to spend more time on the field, and is getting exposed weekly. The result? A rank of 30th in the league. This team has already lost four games by 18+ points. The Cards have now gone nine straight weeks allowing 20+ points, and the Niners have been good under the Monday Night lights posting a 17-5 ATS mark in their last 22. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS under Mike Singletary after suffereing an upset loss as a favorite. Over the past two seasons, San Francisco is 8-1 ATS after an ATS loss. The Niners swept this Cards team last year, even with Kurt Warner taking snaps. And this Arizona team is much, much worse. I think the 49ers are the better team and they win and cover.