Pittsburgh at Tennessee

This may be a first. The Tennessee Titans, who sport the best record in the NFL at 12-2, are a slight dog at home. While I haven't been a big proponent of the Tians this season, feeling they have been the beneficiary of a soft schedule and a great turnover ratio. But, they continue to be the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL, not getting any respect as the lines in their games have not been inflated. Their loss at Houston last week plays into a strange line this week. And, Pittsburgh's five-game winning streak, capped by a win over Baltimore last week also plays a factor. But, should the Titans really be a home dog? I think not! The fact that their opponent is off a win and they are off a loss makes me like them even more. Most got a chance to see Pittsburgh's big defense and win last week, while all that stands out from the Titans game is that they lost. Here is why there is value here. The end of the Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore game last week ended with a controversial Pittsburgh TD. If it was ruled the other way and the Steelers lost, what would this line be? The Titans out-gained the Texans last week by 100 yards and lost by a point. If those two games switched, what would change? The teams wouldn't, but the perception would and that is what drives the line. There is value here because if those changes occurred, Tennessee would be a -3 in this game instead of a +2. The Steelers have now had to bring it three consecutive weeks. First they played the Patriots, then the Cowboys and finally the Ravens. Their most emotional and physical game was last week. They now have to bring it a fourth-straight week, this time against the Titans who will be loaded for bear at home with the playoff-like atmosphere and drive after laying low for a couple weeks. I see a lot of value on the Titans who are 6-1 at home and will be ready to bring it in this one.