Pittsburgh at Miami

The Steelers are known for defense, but with Ben Roethlisberger back at the helm, they should be know as a good offensive team, too. Big Ben immediately made his presence known by throwing for three touchdowns in his first game back for the Steelers last week. His 9.5 yards per attempt far exceeded any output from the Steelers in the first four games without him. Miami has not been able to stop anyone in their last three games as they have been torched for over 30 points per game on average. One thing they can do at home is score some points. The Dolphins have gone for 20+ in nine of their last ten regular season home games. The Steelers are always associated with defense, but the reality is that they have gone 21-10-1 to the OVER in their last 32 vs. the AFC as well as 22-8-1 to the OVER as a favorite of 3 or less. The Dolphins have gone OVER four straight times as a home dog of 3 or less and they are 8-1 OVER at home since last season. And, when facing a great rushing defense (teams allowing 70 or fewer rushing yards per game), the Dolphins have gone OVER 10 straight times. I like this one to finish OVER the total.