Pittsburgh at Kansas City

These are two AFC teams with winning records and playoff hopes, so expect the defenses to bring their A-games. This is a lot of points for a winning team to get. Pittsburgh comes off of a 19-13 win over Tennessee as the defense improved to 13th on third down. On grass fields this year, the Steelers are allowing a very respectable 20.1 points per game. The Steelers are on a 37-14-1 run UNDER the total on the road (10-4 UNDER in December). Kansas City's defense was terrible early on, but personnel changes and the trade for Pittsburgh DE Melvin Ingram has this unit playing great. In the first five games, the Chiefs allowed 32.6 points per game, but since then they've allowed just 12.8 points per contest (6-3 UNDER the total). Adding Ingram allows Chris Jones to play exclusively inside while LB Willie Gay, Jr. and CB Charvarius Ward have returned from early-season injuries. For this week, Kansas City has 13 players in COVID-19 protocols, including 1,000-yard receivers TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill. Pittsburgh plays well in the underdog role under Mike Tomlin, having gone 41-25 ATS when getting points. Tomlin's Steelers are also 36-24 ATS vs. good teams (.600 to .750). The UNDER has cashed six of the last eight meetings between these teams. Play the Steelers and the UNDER.