Pittsburgh at Green Bay

Pittsburgh is 24-8-2 ATS as an underdog, including 18-7-1 ATS as a road dog. They still have a terrific veteran QB in Ben Roethlisberger and a defense that is #13 in the NFL in yards allowed, Top 10 against the run, and #12 in points surrendered. Pittsburgh is 34-16-2 ATS on the road against teams with a winning home record, plus 17-6 ATS off a loss by 10+ points to a division rival. Green Bay isn't providing Aaron Rodgers with any offensive balance. They are third-worst in rushing yards with their backs averaging 3.4 yards per carry. That's a big reason why their third-down offense is #21 while their third-down conversion defense is third-worst (53.33%). The Green Bay 'D' is also #23 in points surrendered (27.7 per game). Green Bay is 26-43 ATS at home against teams that allow 5.65 yards per play. In addition, the Packers are 96-69 OVER the total versus losing teams and 74-46 OVER against opponents that allow 350+ yards per game. Play Pittsburgh and the OVER.