Pittsburgh at Detroit

Looking at this game from a last year's prospective, you would have had the best team against the worst. That isn't quite the case here, as the Steelers have reverted some and Detroit is much better than last season. The Steelers are allowing 40 yards per game more on defense this season than they did a year ago. Pittsburgh has been good offensively in the early going, but so have the Lions, producing 50 more yards a game over 2008. So, this Lions team has improved by 90 net yards per game. The Steelers may have a difficult time getting motivated for the Lions as they are off of four tough games. This is also desperation week in the NFL and clearly teams that are 1-3 are facing the fact of a loss pretty much putting an end to hopes of a prosperous season. Since 1990 NFL teams with a 1-3 record have gone 77-59 ATS. If they are off a loss, as the Lions are, that mark jumps to 64-42 ATS (over 60% winners). Matthew Stafford may not play in this game but I think he likely will. If he doesn't, Culpepper is adequate to fill in. The Steelers have been a money burning 3-9 ATS in their last 12 as a favorite of 10.5 or more and have not covered in any of their last four on the road. In the Mike Tomlin era, the Steelers have been a good team to back in most situations, but they are just 4-8 ATS and 5-7 straight-up as a road favorite. The Lions are 13-3 ATS when posted as a dog of 10.5 or more. Pittsburgh may well emerge as a championship team by year's end but they have not played like it thus far as they have allowed nearly as many points as they have scored. Laying double-digits on the road should be reserved for teams that are blowing out their competition. Detroit won the last time in this building so they will actually have a bit of confidence coming into this game. I like Detroit to make this closer than most expect.