Pittsburgh at Denver

The total set here has been set very low for obvious reasons. Bettors have lost faith in Tim Tebow while they still beleive in the Denver defense. And, Big Ben is hobbled and Pittsburgh's offense hasn't been great on the road this year while their defense is again ranked at the top of the league. Another factor at this time of year is the weather. There are flurries or snow showers forecast in the morning, but come game time temperatures should be just above freezing and dry with little wind, so weather should not be a factor. The Steelers have allowed 48 points over their last six games at 8 points per game, so the defense has been very Pittsburgh-like. One concern here is the fact that the Steelers have been yielding yardage on the ground. Cleveland gained just 72 yards, but did so at over 5 yards per carry. Their two previous games saw both teams hit the 100-yard mark against the Steelers, and they sure are going to see a good running game in this one with Tebow and company. The Broncos defense got a lift from all the Tebow hoopla, but it has settled back to what it is and that is not good. The perception on this defense is just wrong - it's actually quite bad. The Broncos gave up 40+ twice in their last five games, as well as 32 points to Minnesota. The 32 to Minnesota was second to their season high at the time, the 40 to Buffalo was 1 point shy of their season high, and the 41 to New England was a season high at the time, eclipsed only on the final Sunday. On the season, Denver is ranked in the bottom third of the league in points allowed. During the "Tebow" stretch, they looked good but who did they play? They held down teams like Kansas City (with Tyler Palko), the Jets, San Diego (during their slump) and Chicago (with Caleb Hanie). It wouldn't be farfetched to think that the Steelers can push 30 on their own. In their last 11 playoff games as a favorite they are 10-1 to the OVER. The Broncos come in at 35-14-2 to the OVER following a loss. Play this one on the OVER. Under Mike Tomlin, the "defensive" Pittsburgh Steelers are a perfect 7-0 to the OVER in playoff games (likely because of shaded lines due to their reputation). This total is just set too low as evidenced by history. The last 16 NFL playoffs games with a total set at 36 or lower have gone 14-2 OVER. While lots point to the UNDER here, my computer matchup and I agree - go contrarian and take the OVER here.