Pittsburgh at Cleveland

I need Cleveland to win here to deliver a win on my preseason prediction that the Browns would win more than 5.5 games. So they gotta do it right? Well of course that's not the reason for this pick. I have a lot of other reasons to really like the Browns here. The Steelers have a lot of injuries coming into this game, with six players questionable or doubtful including Troy Polamalu, Aaron Smith, Bryant McFadden and LJames Harrison. I'm not sure the Steelers are going to jeopardize health in this one, as even though they have something at stake here, they are in the playoffs regardless of the outcome. The Browns have improved a lot on both sides of the ball this year. Despite only five wins, they have played tough at home. They lost to Kansas City by just 2 points, beat the Patriots and lost to the Jets in overtime. They certainly can compete or win this one. This is a team that gave up 30 points or more seven times last year, and the ledger shows a big goose-egg on that front for the Browns this season as they have not allowed a single team to score more than 28. Going back to last year, the Browns have allowed just 17.1 points per game at home in their last 10 games. The Browns have also historically played the Steelers very tough here at home, covering the last two. And, this is a better Browns team than years past with a good defense. The Steelers are just 4-0 ATS in their last 13 as a road favorite and 0-5 ATS after a 14-point win or more. They are also 8-19 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. teams at .400 or worse. The Browns are now 14-5-1 ATS as a dog from 3.5-10. I’m gonna take Cleveland, so should you.